Friday, November 13, 2009

(Sigh)

The Bank Stock bubble that we're in right now is something I can deal with. Bank profits, though small, are up. This is in part due to the fees charged to card and account holders for things like checking account overdrafts and late payments, but also due to a minor (but significant) change in investment strategy. After the trillions of dollars lost in the past 14 months, we're finally starting to see a willingness to invest conservatively.

It's not that profits are taking a back seat to asset protection, but we're not seeing the type of massively over leveraged portfolios like we were in 2008.

But what bothers me is the real estate bubble that's formed, which has artificially driven up the stock market. Bottom seeking, profit taking traders are singing a happy tune, but what about the rest of us?

The now extended home buyer tax credit has done a great job in pushing potential home buyers into the marketplace and giving them a nudge towards a purchase. NPR even reported earlier today about bidding wars breaking out over Washington DC area real estate.

But the real estate bubble is just that... a bubble. Without even mentioning the impending commercial real estate crash, I worry that this 'recovery' of late 2009 is going to be short lived. Worse, I believe the re-crash of 2011 (give or take) will be much more paralyzing to the overall economy.

Buckle up...

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